Operation Ukraine

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 79

The Ukrainian government has given in to Russia. For now. The European Union had already lost all hope when a significant part of the Ukrainian people took to the streets and, for the second time, changed the parameters of the situation. Now all options are open.

A little before the Vilnius Summit with the Eastern Partnership countries in the summer, the signs for the EU were promising: Ukraine seemed prepared to sign a new, more ambitious Association Agreement; Georgia and Moldova were due to initial similar agreements; Armenia was willing to begin negotiations; and only the two more authoritarian states, Belarus and Azerbaijan, would be left out. In September, Armenia gave in to Moscow, while little Moldova persevered despite Russia suspending its wine imports, which are key to its economy. Ukraine, meanwhile, resisted Russian pressure for months, giving hope to Europe and its own citizens by reiterating its intention to sign the Association Agreement on the 28th and 29th of November. Some analysts even suggested that Russian president Vladimir Putin was doing the EU a favor by stepping over the line in his attempts to coerce Ukraine, thereby contributing to the possibility that the Vilnius Summit would be the first far-reaching success of the EU's Eastern Partnership policy.

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