2014: the Other Afghan Withdrawal

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 69

The withdrawal of international troops seems to have set in motion the beginning of a stampede whose consequences will only be known over time. Limiting the damage of what looks like a widespread and comprehensive withdrawal at all levels from governments, companies or individuals will be crucial for the stability of Afghanistan.

There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the withdrawal provided that the necessary assets, funding and support are put in place to fill the vacuum left by the international forces. Should this not be guaranteed, the current fears of growing insecurity could become a reality triggering or exacerbating some of the current negative trends.

The gradual decline of aid, if properly managed is not intrinsically bad. As the World Bank points out “less aid with more effective aid delivery could, in the end, lead to more positive outcomes”.

The resurgence of the Taleban insurgency in 2006 started to reverse the prevailing trust and optimism of the business community. This trend has been exacerbated since the announcement of the withdrawal calendar in 2009.

The burden of, and the capacity for, changing reality on the ground for investors remains largely in the hands of the Afghan government through the implementation of the necessary reforms and actions that would guarantee a reasonable level of hard and economic security.

Both, the transition and post transition periods pose a series of great challenges. However none are really new to the country, just the means to tackle them and the division of labour.