Implications of the Ukraine Crisis for the Middle East

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 87

On first sight the Middle East seems to be far away from Ukraine and not directly involved in the escalating events around Crimea’s secession and subsequent annexation by Russia. Yet Ukraine crisis is carefully watched in the region. It could have an impact on oil and gas prices, the Middle East’s most important export goods. Russia and Ukraine are also major food exporters to the region and an important market for Turkish construction and manufacturing businesses. The crisis offers opportunities, too. As Western Europe feels a renewed urgency to diversify its energy supplies, Middle Eastern suppliers could seize business opportunities and Turkey could sharpen its profile as a gas-trading hub.

The crisis can also have political effects in the Middle East. Tension in Ukraine is diverting global attention away from Syria and a more assertive Russia is likely to strengthen the positions of hardliners in Tehran and Damascus. Above all the crisis raises concerns about Western security guarantees in a region that is characterized by turmoil, shifting alliances and a bid for regional hegemony with sectarian undertones by Saudi Arabia and Iran.

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