A Conceptual Model of Climate Change and Human Mobility Interactions

CASCADES Publication 2022

This paper presents a conceptual model of climate change and human mobility in-teractions. The model is meant to guide a scenario planning exercise with stakehold-ers and decision makers as part of the HABITABLE project. It builds mostly on a review of relevant literature and qualitative assumptions based on expert elicitation that are elaborated in the remaining text. Its purpose is to determine central variables and dimensions along which scenarios on climate change and human mobility will be de-veloped in the next stage of the HABITABLE project (see box below).

The scenario planning exercise conducted in HABITABLE complements other work in the project in that it conceptualises the inherent uncertainty of future climate-migra-tion dynamics and the social, ecological, economic, political and other factors that shape them. The goal is not to predict the future or discuss the probability of specific events, but rather to envision different plausible possibilities in order to facilitate stra-tegic planning and adaptation. The exercise aims to produce intuitive narratives that will make it easier to engage non-expert audiences.