Macro-economic Scenarios of Catalonia's Development in Horizon 2030

The interest of the study of secession processes and its consequences in the international relations arena motivated this research launched by CIDOB in collaboration with CEPS, ISIS and ICCS, amidst the recent events that surfaced in Scotland, Catalonia and others towards independence. To date, none of the European Union countries have experienced a break-up of a part of its territory once they have joined the EU. 2014 marked a referendum in Scotland and massive citizen mobilisations in Catalonia on the independence question. In Scotland, the referendum, despite tight results, was in favour of rejecting secession. In Catalonia, as the independence alternative is gaining ground while political and legal quarrel between the central and regional governments continue, a full-fledged and informed economic assessment of the different scenarios is needed to devise the best policy options for future developments.  

The study aims at identifying the scenarios of future development of Catalonia with the rest of Spain and cooperation with the European Union in particular:

• Discussing potential alternative scenarios for Catalonia in the event of becoming an independent state, as a consequence of new political developments and economic conditions at play in Spain in the next years, until 2030.
• Delivering a macro- economic assessment of the scenarios using a state of the art economic model.  

The exercise provides to the policy makers an essential background that helps understanding the costs and benefits of different policy strategies in the years to come, and helps to detect the best circumstances that would help to shape a successful transition process in different independence scenarios from the point of view of:

• The Catalan economy and society, with evident benefits for the Catalan government, the citizens and business in the region in relation with the rest of Spain; and  
• The cooperation with the European Union and the Member States – including obviously Spain after the secession. 

Researchers responsible:

• Mrs. Rym Ayadi (CEPS) and Mr. Jordi Bacaria (CIDOB)

• Marc Gafarot

Team

Jordi Bacaria Colom

Associate Senior Researcher