Report on preliminary impact and policy insights from model and sectoral case study analysis of WP3

CASCADES Technical Report 2023

This Deliverable provides a summary of, and distils key findings from, WP3 outputs to support policy analysis in WP6. Outputs of WP3 encompass the quantitative results of models applied to the exploration of the impacts of climate change on EU trade-linked systems, and qualitative analysis of stakeholder viewpoints - supplemented by information from the wider literature - which highlights key climate-linked concerns, potential responses, and interactions with policy. A synthesis section of the report aims to bring together outcomes of the analysis from each core research section and provides a summary of policy insights/implications. This summary, and the report as a whole, is intended to act as a starting point for (for food systems and soy supply chains) a more in-depth exploration of the policy environment that surrounds trade-linked cross-border impacts that will link to WP6 of the CASCADES project.

As highlighted via the examples provided in Carter et al. (2021) and West et al. (2021), trade-linked cross-border climate impacts have the potential to severely disrupt the European economy. Yet, the research landscape that surrounds these potential impacts remains in a relatively nascent stage. Importantly, whilst quantitative approaches can be applied in isolation to develop our understanding of cascading cross-border impacts, these should ideally be supplemented by the broader development of knowledge as to how initial climate triggers might evolve via trade systems, might interact with the actions and activities of supply chain actors, and how the wider policy landscape might act as an enabler or barrier to EU climate resilience.