The EU and the Future Reform of Global Governance. Risks and Scenarios after COVID-19

REGROUP Foresight paper nº. 1 (April 2024) 

This report aims to identify ways for enhancing the European Union’s (EU’s) ability to anticipate and address global risks after the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, it first examines the evolution of two major trends (global power and globalisation shifts) and its impact on global governance. The erosion of multilateralism entails well-documented risks and harmful effects for the economy, the environment, and human security, and it may lead to different scenarios where the EU’s resilience is jeopardised. To explore policy options and enhance the EU’s preparedness, this paper looks into the future by formulating four clearly differentiated scenarios on a ten-year horizon, based on whether a process of global governance reform takes place and the EU’s role in shaping it. In the scenarios where a process of global governance reform is absent, risks are more pronounced, and prosperity is more complex for the EU. Leadership serves as a strategic asset for the EU even in scenarios where global reform is absent as it promotes internal cohesion. Finally, to foster further research, this paper briefly discusses some ideas on how the EU could unlock a process of global reform and lead these debates.

Keywords: global governance; globalisation; power rivalry; foresight, scenarios