Dubai, Qatar, and the Gulf Emirates' uncertain path to the future

Notes internacionals CIDOB, núm. 34

The image of Dubai as a consumer paradise has taken a denting over the past two years - not just because of the financial crisis. Whilst the country has always stood out as a bastion of liberalism within the region, there are signs that it is not entirely untouched by regional reactions to the nascent Arab democratic movements. These include strong action over civil society groups speaking up for civil liberties and rights, a new competitiveness over regional pre-eminence between the three strongest emirates: Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Qatar; and the stance taken by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) over the Arab Spring.

As a liberal outpost in a conservative region, Dubai has historically prospered from its neighbours’ misfortunes. From Persian traders at the turn of the 20th century, to the Iran-Iraq war, and the aftermath of September 11, money has flowed into Dubai. Commerce, tourism, ship repairs, a booming property sector and now, a new wave of instability have all provided it with another period of opportunity.

However, there are indications that the price paid to Abu Dhabi for the 2009 financial bailout involves more than just money. The financial picture seems to be an optimistic one. For civil liberties and the city-state’s future growth and development, there are questions to be answered about what type of future path Dubai wishes to tread. Will it be able to carve its own path, or will it stand behind the forces of conservatism?

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