Atlantic Scenarios 2025

Scientific paper, nº. 39

The Atlantic Space will undergo significant change over the next ten years as interdependence grows deeper but also more vulnerable; power becomes more diffused; the political prospects of key state actors look uncertain; old and new partnerships need to prove their worth; and joint responses may or may not be a match for current and future threats. This paper outlines three scenarios with a 2025 horizon – Rising Atlantic, Fragile Atlantic and Atlantic à la carte. In particular, it addresses prospects for cooperation or competition, normative convergence or divergence and the emergence of centripetal or centrifugal forces in the Atlantic Space. While not seeking to predict the future, these scenarios highlight in a narrative form some of the opportunities and challenges facing the Atlantic over the medium and long term.