Atlantic Energy and the Changing Global Energy Flow Map

Scientific papers, nº. 17

An ‘Atlantic energy renaissance’ is currently unfolding across the ‘Atlantic Basin,’ where roughly half of the world’s known fossil fuels are located and more than two-thirds of the world’s renewable energy is currently generated. The technological revolutions in ‘unconventional’ and ‘difficult’ hydrocarbons – in shale and offshore – have recently contributed to a shift in the global center of gravity of energy supply away from the ‘Great Crescent’ and into the ‘Atlantic Basin.’ Combined with the shift in the global center of gravity for demand to emerging Asia-Pacific, these ‘revolutions’ are reversing the traditional ‘westward’ flow of energy from Eurasia to the Atlantic to produce a new pattern
of global flows in which the countries of the Atlantic Basin will increasingly become the net suppliers of energy at the margin to Asia-Pacific. Furthermore, such ‘revolutions’ have also played a role in the recent reversal of fortunes of renewable energy, particularly in the Northern Atlantic. Therefore, while shifting energy flow map – largely driven by the Atlantic energy renaissance – both calls into question the notion of the ‘Asian century’ and problematizes the rationale behind the US ‘pivot to Asia,’ it also reveals new geopolitical and governance
potential along the strategic horizon for Atlantic actors. However, such potential will remain unrealized without ‘pan-Atlantic energy cooperation that addresses both the emerging issues of the new ‘energy seascape’ and the low carbon‘imperative.’ Finally, the ‘Atlantic energy renaissance’ and the changing global energy flow map of which it is both cause and effect, also highlights the growing relative strategic significance of the ‘Southern Atlantic.’